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MMA Mixed Martial Arts
starts in 1d
No arb opportunity has ever been detected for this event.
Average estimated score
Kyle Nelson -3 — 4.5 Cristian Pérez
Derived from the consensus total (1.5, 9 books) and consensus margin (-7.5, 2 books) below — home ≈ (total + margin) / 2, away ≈ (total − margin) / 2. Not a prediction; the market's own average, shown with the arithmetic that produced it.
Consensus total
1.5 points
Mean of 9 book(s).
| Book | Value |
|---|---|
| Bovada | 1.5 |
| DraftKings | 1.5 |
| BetUS | 1.5 |
| Caesars | 1.5 |
| ReBet | 1.5 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.5 |
| Coolbet | 1.5 |
| Pinnacle | 1.5 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.5 |
Consensus margin (Kyle Nelson minus Cristian Pérez)
-7.5 points
Mean of 2 book(s).
| Book | Value |
|---|---|
| Bovada | -7.5 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 |
De-vigged win probability
Kyle Nelson: 25.7% (21 books)
Best book (FanDuel) vs worst book (Betsson): $2.95 per $100
Cristian Pérez: 74.3% (21 books)
Best book (Betsson) vs worst book (FanDuel): $2.95 per $100
Proportional de-vig: each book's implied probability (1 / decimal price) is divided by that book's own overround (the sum of its implied probabilities), then averaged across books quoting that side.
| Book | Side | Price | Implied | Overround | Fair (de-vigged) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Kyle Nelson | 3.90 | 25.6% | 105% | 24.4% |
| FanDuel | Cristian Pérez | 1.26 | 79.4% | 105% | 75.6% |
| Hard Rock Bet | Kyle Nelson | 3.75 | 26.7% | 105.4% | 25.3% |
| Hard Rock Bet | Cristian Pérez | 1.27 | 78.7% | 105.4% | 74.7% |
| Bovada | Kyle Nelson | 3.75 | 26.7% | 104.2% | 25.6% |
| Bovada | Cristian Pérez | 1.29 | 77.5% | 104.2% | 74.4% |
| Courtside | Kyle Nelson | 3.77 | 26.5% | 103.4% | 25.6% |
| Courtside | Cristian Pérez | 1.30 | 76.9% | 103.4% | 74.4% |
| DraftKings | Kyle Nelson | 3.70 | 27% | 104.5% | 25.9% |
| DraftKings | Cristian Pérez | 1.29 | 77.5% | 104.5% | 74.1% |
Every figure above is a plain average of the books polled for this event, equally weighted, with no book excluded. This is the market's own number, not a pick, a prediction, or a recommendation — nothing here implies a favorite or a guaranteed outcome.
How each team's completed games have settled since scoring began on September 10, 2026. Records are what happened, not a forecast — nothing here says anything about this game.
No completed games yet
Nothing scored for this team since September 10, 2026.
No completed games yet
Nothing scored for this team since September 10, 2026.
Scoring started on September 10, 2026 and can't be backfilled, so a team that hasn't completed a game since then has no form to show yet.
No EV+ opportunity has ever been detected for this event.
| BetRivers | Kyle Nelson | 3.75 | 26.7% | 105.4% | 25.3% |
| BetRivers | Cristian Pérez | 1.27 | 78.7% | 105.4% | 74.7% |
| Bally Bet | Kyle Nelson | 3.75 | 26.7% | 105.4% | 25.3% |
| Bally Bet | Cristian Pérez | 1.27 | 78.7% | 105.4% | 74.7% |
| betPARX | Kyle Nelson | 3.75 | 26.7% | 105.4% | 25.3% |
| betPARX | Cristian Pérez | 1.27 | 78.7% | 105.4% | 74.7% |
| BetUS | Kyle Nelson | 3.76 | 26.6% | 104.1% | 25.5% |
| BetUS | Cristian Pérez | 1.29 | 77.5% | 104.1% | 74.5% |
| Caesars | Kyle Nelson | 3.90 | 25.6% | 104.4% | 24.6% |
| Caesars | Cristian Pérez | 1.27 | 78.7% | 104.4% | 75.4% |
| ReBet | Kyle Nelson | 3.60 | 27.8% | 105.9% | 26.2% |
| ReBet | Cristian Pérez | 1.28 | 78.1% | 105.9% | 73.8% |
| BetOnline.ag | Kyle Nelson | 3.80 | 26.3% | 103.8% | 25.3% |
| BetOnline.ag | Cristian Pérez | 1.29 | 77.5% | 103.8% | 74.7% |
| Betsson | Cristian Pérez | 1.30 | 76.9% | 105.9% | 72.6% |
| Betsson | Kyle Nelson | 3.45 | 29% | 105.9% | 27.4% |
| Nordic Bet | Cristian Pérez | 1.29 | 77.5% | 106.5% | 72.8% |
| Nordic Bet | Kyle Nelson | 3.45 | 29% | 106.5% | 27.2% |
| Winamax (FR) | Cristian Pérez | 1.26 | 79.4% | 108.4% | 73.2% |
| Winamax (FR) | Kyle Nelson | 3.45 | 29% | 108.4% | 26.8% |
| Betclic (FR) | Cristian Pérez | 1.25 | 80% | 107.8% | 74.2% |
| Betclic (FR) | Kyle Nelson | 3.60 | 27.8% | 107.8% | 25.8% |
| Coolbet | Cristian Pérez | 1.29 | 77.5% | 104% | 74.5% |
| Coolbet | Kyle Nelson | 3.77 | 26.5% | 104% | 25.5% |
| Pinnacle | Cristian Pérez | 1.31 | 76.3% | 103.6% | 73.7% |
| Pinnacle | Kyle Nelson | 3.67 | 27.2% | 103.6% | 26.3% |
| Betfair | Cristian PérezBest price | 1.32 | 75.8% | 101.7% | 74.5% |
| Betfair | Kyle Nelson | 3.85 | 26% | 101.7% | 25.5% |
| Matchbook | Cristian Pérez | 1.32 | 75.8% | 101.1% | 75% |
| Matchbook | Kyle NelsonBest price | 3.95 | 25.3% | 101.1% | 25% |
| PMU (FR) | Cristian Pérez | 1.27 | 78.7% | 105.4% | 74.7% |
| PMU (FR) | Kyle Nelson | 3.75 | 26.7% | 105.4% | 25.3% |